Sports Illustrated
Houston has been knocking on the door of a national championship for a half-decade, with five straight top-five KenPom finishes and four years in a row finishing No. 2 nationally. Last season was painfully close, leading Florida for much of the national championship game before the Gators surged ahead late to steal the title. The Cougars have done everything right in their pursuit of Kelvin Sampson’s elusive first national championship, but from brutal late-season injuries to bad luck to just getting beat by another elite team, they’ve come up short every time.
Is this the year?
Houston will undoubtedly look different without some longtime fixtures within the program. J’Wan Roberts was a six-year guy and a key culture-setter up front. LJ Cryer put up tons of points for two years with the program and bailed out the offense time and time again with his shotmaking. Ja’Vier Francis and Mylik Wilson were key pieces defensively. But the machine that has been Houston basketball shows no signs of slowing down. If anything, this might be the Cougars’ most talented team of the Sampson era thanks to an elite recruiting class with three top-20 recruits.
It all starts with the returners though. Emanuel Sharp is one of college basketball’s best shooters and defenders. Don’t let his costly turnover against Florida in the final seconds stick with you: He’s a legitimate star who has made so many big shots in his career and should make plenty more this season. Continuity at point guard is critical in Houston’s system, and the Cougars have a great one in Milos Uzan. Uzan really found his stride in the second half of the season and should take a big step in his second year in the Houston system after spurning the NBA draft for another year of college. And up front, there might not be a better defender in the country than Joseph Tugler, whose long arms and elite instincts allow him to take over games even when scoring fewer than six points per night.
Being more freshman-driven around that returning core than in previous years could cause some bumps in the road. But if those youngsters are ready to play, it’s going to be hard for just about anyone to beat Houston.
Projected Starting Lineup
PG: Milos Uzan
SG: Kingston Flemings
SF: Emanuel Sharp
PF: Joseph Tugler
C: Kalifa Sakho
Key Reserves: G Isiah Harwell, G Mercy Miller, F/C Chris Cenac
Key Additions
As mentioned above, Houston’s top-tier high school class gives it an impressive talent injection. The Cougars’ system and the ultra-high standard Sampson holds his players to is a very difficult environment to walk into as a freshman, though to its credit Houston did well with its last potential one-and-done in Jarace Walker in 2022–23.
The most game-ready option is Kingston Flemings, a scoring point guard who won Gatorade Player of the Year honors in Texas. Flemings has added weight to get to 190 pounds this summer and he’s a creative ballhandler who’d take some playmaking duties off Uzan’s plate. Also in the mix is Isiah Harwell, a well-built 6' 6" guard with long arms and elite three-level scoring ability. He’s a dynamic shooter who can create his own shot, and he looked sharp during his senior year after missing time during his junior summer with an ACL tear.
And the highest-upside piece is Chris Cenac, a Louisiana native with elite defensive potential. Consistency has plagued him at times in high school and is a must in Sampson’s program. If Cenac puts it together and carves out a big role, good luck scoring on Tugler and Cenac’s combined near-15-foot wingspan. And if Cenac struggles, Houston has insurance in the form of portal pickup Kalifa Sakho. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but he has great size, throws his body around and will turn 25 during the season.
Causes for Concern
Houston’s offense has been a top-20 unit per KenPom in each of the last five seasons, though that has often been driven more by dominating possessions (offensive rebounds and not turning the ball over) than running efficient offense. Cryer bailed out the Cougar offense more times than I can count, and shooting 42% from three at the volume and shot difficulty he took was incredible. Relying on a pair of freshmen in Harwell and Flemings to pick up much of that slack is a tall task. Roberts’s ability to score in the post (even if it wasn’t the most efficient offense in the world) will also be missed when the Cougars’ offense stagnates.
The Bottom Line
Houston is the safest choice for preseason No. 1 in a season that feels wide open. The Cougars’ style of play has proven to set them up to have elite teams time and time again, and there are few things you can count on more confidently in college hoops than a Sampson team being elite on defense and on the glass. The freshmen and their ability to quickly impact winning at a high level will likely dictate whether this is the season the Cougars finally break through and win it all, but with Sampson on the sideline and this returning nucleus in place, it’s hard to bet against the Coogs.