Three teams that earned top-six seeds in the playoffs a season ago will take part in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament this week.
The Heat, Raptors and Bulls are all making their first appearance in the tournament, which will decide the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds in the conference. The Hawks are familiar with the process after they won two play-in games in 2022 to punch their ticket to the postseason.
The way it works is the No. 7 seed (Miami) hosts the No. 8 seed (Atlanta) and the winner advances to face the No. 2 Celtics in the first round. The loser of the 7-8 game then hosts the winner between the No. 9 seed (Toronto) and No. 10 seed (Chicago) and the winner of that game will enter the playoffs as the No. 8 seed with a matchup against the No. 1 Bucks on deck.
In total, three games will be played. The two higher seeds each have two opportunities to clinch a spot while it’s single elimination for the two lower seeds. The No. 7 seed in either conference has yet to miss the playoffs since this setup was first introduced in 2021.
After Tuesday’s games, six first-round matchups will be locked in and come Friday all eight will be decided ahead of the start of the playoffs Saturday afternoon.
Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament Schedule
7:30 p.m. ET (TNT): No. 8 Hawks vs. No. 7 Heat (-4.5) | Total: 226.5
7 p.m. ET (ESPN): No. 10 Bulls vs. No. 9 Raptors (-4.5) | Total: 214.5
Time TBD (TNT): Winner of Bulls/Raptors vs. loser of Hawks/Heat
No. 7 Miami Heat (44–38)
Play-In Opponent: Hawks — won season series, 3–1
Record Since All-Star Break: 12–11
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes (-752) | No (+500)
The Heat never caught the Nets for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the conference, so their path back to the postseason will go through the play-in tournament for the first time. This is a far cry from 2022, when Miami finished with the best record in the East and was one shot away from a trip to the NBA Finals, though the team it will face is a familiar foe in a win-and-in game Tuesday: Atlanta.
Injuries kept the Heat’s optimal lineups off the court for long stretches of the season. Bam Adebayo was the most durable of the team’s stars and he put together the best offensive campaign of his career (20.4 points per game) on the way to his second All-Star nod. Both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro also posted scoring averages north of 20 points per game, though Miami still finished last in the league in points per game (109.5) and 25th in offensive rating. The team’s three-point shooting also dropped off dramatically from an NBA-best 37.9% last season to 34.4%, fourth-worst.
Defense is the calling card for Erik Spoelstra’s squad, which finished ninth in defensive rating. Still, Miami is the only play-in or playoff team with a negative net rating (-0.3) and is tied for the worst record against the spread (30–49–3). The Heat’s 32-22 record in clutch situations is a testament to their experience and mettle, but they might be hard-pressed to make much noise beyond the play-in tournament, which they should be able to emerge from with relative ease.
No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (41–41)
Play-In Opponent: Heat — lost season series, 1–3
Record Since All-Star Break: 12–11
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes (-333) | No (+230)
The Hawks are back in the play-in for the second straight year and they’re up against the Heat, the same team that sent them packing in five games in the first round last April. Atlanta added Dejounte Murray via trade in the offseason and has a new coach in Quin Snyder, who took over for Nate McMillan about a month ago.
When Trae Young and Murray are at their best, few teams have an answer for this offense, which ranks seventh in offensive rating and third in points per game (118.4). However, the Hawks’ 22nd-ranked defense does put a cap on their ceiling. Three-point shooting (35.2%) is not a strength of this roster, though it does hold up on the glass and does a good job of limiting turnovers despite its pace of play.
Though Young’s scoring took a step back this season, he improved his playmaking (10.1 assists per game). But given Young’s struggles against Miami throughout his career, the pressure will be on Murray and the supporting cast of Bogdan Bogdanović, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela and trade deadline acquisition Saddiq Bey. Atlanta didn’t perform well against the spread, either (36–45–1), and struggled in particular against opponents with records of .500 or better (19–28).
No. 9 Toronto Raptors (41–41)
Play-In Opponent: Bulls — won season series, 2–1
Record Since All-Star Break: 13–10
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes (+230) | No (-333)
Toronto’s advanced stats tell the story of a team with a record better than where it finished. The Raptors rank 13th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating and they’ll have a chance to prove that they simply underperformed throughout the regular season in the play-in tournament as rumors about coach Nick Nurse’s future hang over the team.
Pascal Siakam turned in perhaps his best season as a pro as his scoring average (24.2 points per game) and assist numbers (5.8) soared to career-highs. His running mates Fred VanVleet and Scottie Barnes didn’t follow suit in that regard. FVV’s shooting percentages and scoring averages took a tumble and Barnes did not take a leap after a promising Rookie of the Year campaign. The addition of Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline was important for Toronto, as the team lacked a true center despite all the length it employs on the wings.
The Raptors are among the worst three-point shooting teams in the NBA (33.5%), though they are careful with the ball and average the fewest turnovers in the league (11.2). Getting to host the first game is a massive advantage for Toronto, which went 27–14 at Scotiabank Arena, compared with its 14–27 mark on the road.
No. 10 Chicago Bulls (40–42)
Play-In Opponent: Raptors — lost season series, 1–2
Record Since All-Star Break: 14–9
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes (+600) | No (-1000)
The Bulls may well be the sleeping giant in the play-in field. Since the All-Star break, they lead all teams in defensive rating and rank third in net rating. For the season, Chicago is fifth in defensive rating, a massive year-over-year improvement from No. 23. The combination of a stout defense and the threat of two professional bucket-getters in Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan could prove dangerous in a one-game playoff scenario.
Health was on the Bulls’ side this season as Nikola Vucevic and Patrick Williams both played in all 82 games and LaVine and DeRozan combined to miss just 13 total. Wing defenders like Alex Caruso and Patrick Beverly help Chicago, which ranks seventh in steals per game (7.9), force so many turnovers (14.2).
Despite that late-season push, the Bulls still finished sub-.500 for the fifth time in six years. They go against the grain of modern basketball as they are the only team in the NBA that attempts less than 30 three-pointers per game and they don’t get to the free-throw line all that often, though they do make better than 80% of their attempts from the stripe. Still, Chicago’s arrow is pointing up at the right time.
Play-In Predictions
The Heat handle the Hawks for the fourth time in five tries this season and for the eighth time in 10 meetings over the last calendar year. That sets up the third Miami-Boston playoff matchup in the last four seasons. In the 9-10 game, the Bulls will pull off the upset over the Raptors on the road even though they did drop both meetings in Toronto during the regular season. That sets up an Atlanta-Chicago win-and-in game Friday in the Peach State between two teams that split their four regular-season meetings (one of which went to overtime). The Hawks will more than likely be favored in that matchup at home, but DeRozan and LaVine will lead the Bulls to victory and a second consecutive postseason meeting with the division-rival Bucks.